Super Heavy Lift Launch: Unlocking the Future of Space

In looking at the potential future of super heavy lift rockets (SHLs) in terms of expansion in payload capacity and volume to orbit, it is useful to examine how mature transport industries in the aviation and maritime sectors sought and gained greater scale and economy. Bigger is not always better, as excessive scale sometimes leads to complexity, reduced agility, and often reduced payload utilization; sometimes there are broader market factors and externalities that determine economic success. It is too early to tell if SHLs will result in a boom for a bold space race or a bust for a space economy. Today, dueling efforts between two deeply vertically integrated companies, SpaceX and Blue Origin, could bring competitive market forces to bear on SHL launch vehicles. This paper discusses why, for now, the market maturation path for SHLs will most likely involve serving megaconstellations with a regular launch cadence and how SHLs can prove to be commercially successful—and describes the necessary foundation for unlocking and building the extraordinary. 

Authors: Karen L. Jones, Dr. Alberto Arredondo, Matthew A. Anderson, and Aidan Goldenberg-Hart