Large Constellation Disposal Hazards

Ailor Constel Disposal Cover Image
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This assessment of potential risks to people and aircraft from random reentries of large numbers of satellites shows that risks to aircraft posed by small debris surviving a reentry might be a major problem, with worldwide risk of an aircraft striking a reentering debris fragment on the order of once every 200 years. Hazards to people on the ground from larger debris objects will also be a significant problem, with expectations as high as 1 casualty every 10 years. Spacecraft components and features could be designed to have fewer large and small fragments survive, but only limited hard data on actual debris survival currently exists.